A pricing engine for insurance risk that returns a distribution, not a number.
Claustrum models each account as a predicted loss curve. Calibrated, explainable, and exposed through a single API. Underwriters see the shape of the risk, not just its midpoint.
BUILT ON BAYESIAN DEEP NETWORKS + SDE MODELING
Most pricing systems hand the underwriter an expected loss and stop there. The variance, the worst credible outcome, and the reasons behind both are left to instinct. Two accounts with the same midpoint look identical — until one of them produces the claim that moves the book.
Posterior inference that was a research workload a decade ago now runs inline with submission flow. Probabilistic models can finally sit in the underwriting path, not next to it — at the latency a real desk needs.
After a decade of volatile loss ratios, severity shocks, and systemic-event scares, underwriters know point estimates do not describe the risk. Buyers are actively choosing distributional, evidence-backed pricing.
{
"segment": "mid_market",
"geography": "US_MULTISTATE",
"exposure": { "basis": "revenue", "value": 84000000 },
"policy": { "limit": 5000000, "retention": 50000, "term_months": 12 },
"loss_history": [
{ "year": 2024, "incurred": 180000, "status": "closed" },
{ "year": 2022, "incurred": 940000, "status": "open" }
],
"signals": {
"exposure_concentration": 0.42,
"controls_maturity": 0.78,
"third_party_dependency": 0.34,
"claim_frequency_trend": 0.21
}
}Anchor premium to a chosen quantile of the predicted loss curve. Margin reflects the shape of the risk, not the average of it.
Case reserves and IBNR carry the same uncertainty the pricing model saw. Reserve to a band, with the drivers attached, defendable to actuaries and regulators.
Two accounts with the same expected loss are not the same risk. Surface the wider distribution — usually the concentrated or systemic exposure — before it ends up in the book.
Triage submissions, set technical price, and route referrals using the shape of the predicted loss — on a single underwriting surface.
Score accounts against appetite and target loss ratio with explicit uncertainty. See which segments of the book carry the systemic and tail exposure.
Re-underwrite ceded portfolios from the ground up. Price treaty layers and aggregation covers against a modelled loss curve, not aggregated cedant summaries.
We work with a small number of underwriting, pricing, and program teams at a time. Tell us where you sit and we will be in touch.